NFL Week 1 Power Rankings
Doc's Sports will rank all 32 teams in the NFL from the strongest to the weakest, with a betting slant, throughout each week of the 2006-2007 NFL season. And without further ado, here are my Week 1 NFL Power Rankings (previous ranking in parenthesis):
1. Denver (3) - I think they're walking into a bear trap on Sunday. This will only be the fourth time in 11 years that the Broncos opened the season on the road. They're 1-2 SU in the previous three. Meanwhile, St. Louis is 9-2 in home openers.
2. Carolina (2) - The Panthers have looked sharp throughout the preseason. But remember, a more focused team in Week 1 stunned them last year (New Orleans). And Atlanta is definitely focused in this spot.
3. Pittsburgh (1) - The line on this game has bounced around more than Pamela Anderson on her three recent honeymoons. But Pitt is back as a favorite in part because people realized, "Wait, this is Dante Culpepper on the road. What were we thinking?"
4. Indianapolis (5) - The Colts look like they're taking a page out of the Bill Belichick playbook. They have 19 guys listed as questionable on the injury report this weekend. That's a Huge red flag. I'm sure about 15 of those guys are going to play, but are they all going to be ready to roll up into the Meadowlands for a fistfight?
5. Chicago (6) - Mike Brown is coming back from a potentially serious Achilles injury this preseason. He says he's fine, but the over/under on when he goes down for the season is Week 4. The Bears are beat up all over their defense - Brown, Alex Brown and Nate Vasher - heading into Green Bay.
6. Seattle (7) - I had the No. 1 Overall pick in my fantasy draft and took Alexander. Now he needs to prove that the Madden Curse is a joke.
7. New England (8) - There are Huge Questions facing this team. Seau? Gabriel? Branch? Harrison? Gostkowski? O'Callaghan? Maroney? Between 2003 and 2005 their number of interceptions has been reduced by one-third (29 to 10) and their number of TD passes allowed has more than doubled (11 to 25).
8. Washington (4) - Yuck. An 0-4 mark and no points out of the No. 1 offense, coupled with the whole Portis-injury thing explains the drop. Now they're going to be without Shawn Springs for another couple of weeks. Bad vibes.
9. Miami (16) - The Dolphins have been one of the more impressive teams this preseason. Now it's time to take the next step. Playoff teams take advantage of breaks. Big Ben being sidelined is a break, so this is clearly an early test for the Fins.
10. New York Giants (13) - Rookie Barry Cofield, 6-feet-4, 306 pounds, will start at nose tackle on Sunday against a veteran Indianapolis O-line. Does that officially make William Joseph a bust? The key question for the Giants D is can they stop the run?
11. Cincinnati (17) - I can't tell you how many angry e-mails I've gotten from Bengals fans over the past three weeks. Listen, I apologize. When my initial rankings were posted, Anthony Wright was the starter and half of the team was on parole. The Bengals are a league-worst 18-38-2 ATS in September recently.
12. Dallas (11) - The Cowboys are 1-5 SU and 2-4 ATS in their opening game over the past six years. This is the third time in four seasons that they've opened on the road, and they are 1-2 in the previous three.
13. Tampa Bay (10) - Tampa starting safeties Will Allen and Jermaine Phillips have started just five games together and they are the youngest players on the Bucs defense. But since McNair can't complete a pass further than 15 yards down the field I don't see the Ravens exploiting that.
14. Jacksonville (12) - Nine comeback victories. An inordinate number of close wins (6-1 in games decided by six points or less). No impressive road W's. Last year may have been a figment of the Jaguars' imagination.
15. Baltimore (9) - The Ravens have lost 11 consecutive road games. It's supposed to be hot (89 degrees), muggy (UV Index: extreme) and wet (scattered T-storms) Sunday in Tampa. Derrick Mason, Chris McAllister and Jamal Lewis are questionable.
16. Atlanta (15) - Step forward: getting Ashley Lelie. Step backward: Edge Hartwell gets injured, again. They start with three straight divisional games, two of which are on the road. Tough times.
17. Philadelphia (19) - Don't confuse Donte Stallworth for a No. 1 receiver. And don't confuse the Eagles offense for one that needs a No. 1 receiver.
18. Kansas City (18) - I know they aren't what they once were, but Arrowhead is not the type of place that you just walk into and win. Last weekend I said the same thing about another place and team: Knoxville and the Tennessee Vols.
19. San Diego (14) - After the issues with Drew Brees, Donnie Edwards and now Glenn Foley, the Chargers front office is close to alienating the players. That is, if they haven't already. From what I gather, Foley was a big Character Guy in the locker room.
20. Arizona (23) - Saw a special on the NFL Network about Cardinals Stadium. That place is freakin' awesome. The Cardinals picked up three players from waivers this week. That should be a red flag. Linebacker Karlos Dansby is still out with a toe injury, and that's a critical loss for that defense.
21. Oakland (28) - With off-field injures and distractions surrounding the Chargers, the Raiders are in a great spot to steal a divisional game. However, the Raiders are just 6-17-1 ATS in The Black Hole since the start of 2003.
22. St. Louis (26) - Quiet preseason. No notable injuries (yet). Defense reportedly making strides. Also, they've lost four straight at home. What are the odds that they lose five? The Rams, along with the Eagles and Lions, could are sleepers in the NFC this year.
23. Houston (22) - Man, that Domanick Davis situation is just making the Mario Williams pick soooooooo much more suspect. I like the Texans, but that leaky line is going to get manhandled by Javon Kearse and Darren Howard. Early prediction: six sacks.
24. Detroit (20) - If this game was in November, I would be taking the Lions and the 6.5 points in a heartbeat. But it's not in Nov.
25. Minnesota (21) - When Koren Robinson drinks, everyone loses. The Vikings are one of the most intriguing teams playing this weekend. How good is that offensive line? Will that defense play with heart?
26. Tennessee (24) - Last year the Titans had teams dangling second-round draft picks for Billy Volek. Now they can't give the guy away. In what I saw of him - and with that feeble WR corps - Volek's preseason didn't merit a demotion. But I'm not at practice every day.
27. Cleveland (25) - What do you have for me Charlie Frye? Hank Fraley was a real good get for a team desperate for a center. The Browns are a plucky team, and I expect them to be tough at home this season.
28. Green Bay (27) - I hate to say it, but the Pack is in a position to capitalize on the Bears disorganization this weekend. Stud Wideout Greg Jennings - the guy I had no idea existed when I handicapped potential ROY candidates - will start opposite Donald Driver.
29. N.Y. Jets (29) - If you've been watching the waiver wire over the last week you'll notice that the Jets have been grabbing anyone with the letters DT next to their name. They've been doing some serious junkyard work.
30. New Orleans (30) - Sunday will mark New Orleans' 18th consecutive road game. I hate to say it, but the Saints might want to consider sitting Reggie Bush in Cleveland this week. Just think about the horrendous luck that No. 1 picks have had there over the past few seasons.
31. San Francisco (32) - Yeah, they impressed me that much in the preseason. At least they had the sense to cut ties with Kevan Barlow, whose contract was absurd.
32. Buffalo (31) - That hack Chris Berman picks the 49ers and the Bills for the Super Bowl every year. I have them picked to face-off in the Brady Quinn Sweepstakes.
Questions or comments for Robert? E-mail him at robert@docsports.com.
Check Doc's Sports site for daily sports betting articles, 2006 NFL Schedules, NFL Odds, and Football Picks.
Fantasy Football Preview - QB Rankings
Tier 1
1. Peyton Manning(Colts) bye week: 6 age: 31
-The consensus top choice at QB, Manning once again was nothing short of brilliant in 2006 throwing 31 touchdown passes while logging 4,397 passing yards. Still in his prime and a lock to play 16 games, Eli's big brother is the surest of bet when it comes to the QB position. Whether you want to be the guy to draft a QB in round 1 while everyone else snags a RB is the only decision you will have to make when it comes to this machine. Nothing short of a top pick will suffice if you hope to grab him.
2. Carson Palmer(Bengals) bye week: 5 age: 27
-2006 was a season of redemption for Carson Palmer in that he put all doubts to rest regarding how he would fare in his return from reconstructive knee surgery. All he did was go out and throw for 28 td's along with 4035 passing yards. Blessed with a howitzer for an arm, Palmer is poised to possibly overtake Peyton Manning this year as the best fantasy QB in football. With Chad Johnson and TJ Houshmanzadeh as his two main weapons, Palmer could possibly challenge the 40 TD mark. Advice: wait on Manning and grab this guy in round 2 if you are one of those who take a QB early.
Tier 2
3. Drew Brees(Saints) bye week: 4 age: 28
-Don't let the dislocated elbow Brees suffered in the Pro Bowl impact how you view this crafty veteran going into the season. All reports indicate Drew is right on schedule to be fully ready to go from day 1 of training camp and that means another season of big numbers from the Saints' leader. Don't expect Brees to put up another 4,500 yard season but something along the lines of 4,000 with 25 TD's sounds about right. Surrounded by outstanding weapons in RB's Deuce McAllister and Reggie Bush, along with last year's sensation WR Marques Colston, Brees will prove to be a smart buy for those who wait a few rounds to take their QB. A third round pick is the latest however he will last.
4. Tom Brady(Patriots) bye week: 10 age: 30
-New England's favorite son disappointed fantasy owners last year who dealt with Brady's inconsistent performances throughout the year. Despite throwing for a solid 24 TD's, Brady's passing yardage was down considerably from the year before. However one must only look at the weapons brought in by the front office to see that Tom is poised for a big year. Along with prized recruit Randy Moss, NE signed long-range bomber Donte Stallworth, possession receiver Wes Welker, and solid reserve Kelly Washington. All this adds up to possibly a 30 TD season along with Brady's second 4,000 yard season in three years. Also like Manning, you never have to worry about whether or not Brady will suit up as he owns the fourth longest streak of consecutive starts. Third to fourth round draft choice.
5. Marc Bulger(Rams) bye week 9 age: 30
-At press time there were rumblings that Bulger may be considering holding out in the hopes of landing a big contract. However don't let this deter you from drafting this incredibly solid performer. Despite not having the best arm, Bulger excels with what he has which is incredible accuracy, solid field smarts, and the ability to go with the hot reads. In his second year in coach Scott Linehan's system, Bulger should exceed the Pro Bowl numbers he amassed last season. If I were a betting man, I say Bulger leads the NFL in passing yardage. Grab him in round 3 with 5 being the latest if you're lucky.
6. Donovan McNabb(Eagles) bye week: 5 age: 30
-No QB in fantasy football will cause more consternation when it comes to drafting him than the Eagles' leader. On his way to an MVP-type season last year, McNabb suffered a season-ending knee injury which now brings him to 19 missed games over the last two years. The tools are still there such as the nimble feet and cannon arm. However Philly didn't draft Kevin Kolb because they wanted him to look pretty on the sidelines. There is some doubt as to whether Donovan can be the player he used to be. I say he can be and the motivation to prove his nay-sayers wrong will lead to a comeback season for McNabb. A potential championship pick due to the fact you may be able to snag him as late as the seventh round due to the questions surrounding his status.
Tier 3
7. Matt Hasselbeck(Seahawks) bye week: 8 age: 31
-poised to join the top five fantasy QB's going into last season, instead Matt Hasselbeck struggled throughout the year with injuries and inconsistency. With only 18 TD's and 2,442 yards to show for it, Hasselbeck was nothing but a disappointment for his owners. Despite last year however, I believe Hasselbeck will rebound and post his usual 22-25 TD's along with 3.500 yards. Having RB Shaun Alexander healthy is huge along with a better offensive line in front of him. Snag him in the fifth round or so.
8. Philip Rivers(Chargers) bye week: 7 age: 25
-After having to sit and wait two years while predecessor Drew Brees garnered back-to-back Pro Bowl bids, last year Philip Rivers showed everyone he was worth the wait. Joining Brees in Honolulu, Rivers displayed great poise and decision-making in his first year at the helm of the league's top club. Now with a year under his belt, look for Rivers to exceed the 24 TD's he amassed last season. Draft with confidence in round 5-6.
9. Matt Leinart(Cardinals) bye week 8 age 24
-you may be surprised by how high I have him ranked but when you look at the whole picture, this second year wonder will more than likely ascend to the top tier of fantasy quarterbacks this season. Coming from an NFL-caliber offense where he did nothing but win at USC, Leinart steps into a potentially explosive offense with Pro Bowl caliber receivers Anquan Boldin and Larry Fitzgerald, along with RB Edgerrin James in what could become one of the most efficient passing games in the league. Though he doesn't have a cannon for an arm, Leinart is arguably one of the most intelligent QB's in the league who has great accuracy. Look for a big step forward in his second year under center. You might be able to nab him as late as round 9.
10. Vince Young(Titans) bye week: 4 age: 24
-after taking the league by storm as a rookie last season, this second-year wonder is poised to do even better things for Tennessee. Combining great quickness along with a strong arm, Young proved his naysayer's wrong by sparking the Titans to a respectable season under his guidance. One negative is the fact that the Tennessee front office failed to find offensive help for their franchise QB and in fact weakened the offense by letting WR Drew Bennett leave as a free agent. Expect some growing pains for this still raw Titans team which could negatively impact Young's numbers. However when you look at rushing yardage from a QB along with his passing ability, Young has now surpassed the troubled Mike Vick in this ranking. Draft him in round 6-8.
Tier 4
11. Tony Romo(Cowboys) bye week: 8 age: 27
-With Drew Bledsoe struggling early last season, coach Bill Parcells made the move many expected when he inserted pre-season's perennial star Tony Romo. Once handed the job, Romo proceeded to put up a Pro Bowl season with 23 TD's and 3,600 yards in 10 starts. Look for Romo to put up similar numbers now that he has the benefit of knowing he will be starting from day one. When I mean similar, I mean around 23 TD's for the whole season and not 10 games. Some regression to the mean is expected with him this year. Draftable in round 7-9.
12. Eli Manning(Giants) bye week 9 age: 26
-Peyton's little brother continued to drive fantasy owner's nuts due to his inconsistency but 24 TD's is not bad at all. The problem with Eli is the lack of accuracy and the breakdown in his mechanics when things begin to go wrong. With time to throw and little pressure in his face, Eli would rival his brother as fantasy football's top QB. However the G-Men's O-line is weak and Manning will once again have to deal with opposing players in his face so more struggles are sure to follow him around most of the year. If you draft him expect one week of 300 yards with 4 TD's along with another of 180 yards and 4 INT's.
13. Jake Delhomme(Panthers) bye week: 7 age: 32
-Delhomme struggled throughout the year last season due to injuries and poor protection. An injured thumb was the main culprit as Jake was only able to muster 17 Td's. Expect a rebound this year though as favorite target Steve Smith is fully healthy himself this season and the fact that Delhomme will be extra focused due to the presence of newly signed David Carr. If he struggles however, don't be surprised if Carr gets the call rather quickly. Risky pick here but good upside to gamble on.
14. Jay Cutler(Broncos) bye week: 6 age: 24
-one of the NFL's rising stars at the position, Cutler got his feet wet towards the end of last season as he showed great poise in throwing 9 TD's against 5 INT's. With Jake Plummer now in retirement, the job is the cannon-armed second year man's to himself. Already people are whispering that he could be the second coming of John Elway and with the good speed, great arm combo, who are we to argue? Fantasies aside, Cutler is a rising gem and could be a top 7 guy by the end of the year. If you're going to reach for one player on offense this year, this guy is the one. Highly recommended sleeper.
The Rest (Should Be Drafted as Backups in 12 Team Leagues)
15. Brett Favre(Packers) bye week: 7 age: 37
-still has some juice left in that arm of his and despite his age, Favre could still put up more than decent numbers this year. With star WR Donald Driver there to catch his bullets, Lambeau's favorite son should be a good but not great option. Works best as a bye week starter or injury replacement. Two things you could always count on with Favre: he will start (he never misses a game) and he will throw interceptions. Take the good with the bad.
16. Michael Vick(Falcons) bye week: 8 age: 27
-at press time, Vick was being indicted on felony charges of financing a dog fighting ring. Due to this development, Vick is dropped all the way down to this mediocre ranking. Stands a good chance of being suspended, with the possibility of being placed in jail. Don't count on him for this season. Pass.
17. Jon Kitna(Lions) bye week: 6 age: 34
-was on many sleeper lists heading into last season and despite the over-the-top hype, Kitna's season was not terrible. He passed for over 4,000 yards and 21 TD's which alone would be terrific. However when you factor in the 22 INT's he threw, the light dims on the shine of his season. With tremendous weapons at his disposal in WR's Roy Williams and rookie Calvin Johnson, Kitna will have his big games. However his turnover-prone ways will always be lurking to hurt your team at every corner. Ride him while he is hot but dump him as soon as the inevitable slump hits.
18. Ben Roethlisberger(Steelers) bye week: 6 age: 25
-Big Ben had a season to forget in 2006 as a motorcycle accident that nearly killed him combined with his appendix emergency ruined whatever momentum he had coming off the Super Bowl. New coach Mike Tomlin preaches the run game so Roth could have a tough time cracking the 20 TD mark. Way too many questions surround this talented but inconsistent passer. Let him be someone else's problem.
19. JP Losman(Bills) bye week: 6 age: 26
-with a wickedly strong arm and sometimes crazy risk taking, JP Losman evokes many people to say he is the next Brett Favre. Though Losman is talented, to say he is the next coming of Favre does injustice to the Hall Of Famer. JP however showed last season he could play in the NFL but leading a number of big comebacks with batterymate WR Lee Evans. A poor offensive line and lack of playmakers outside of Evans however will limit Losman's upside for this year. Maybe in a year or two.
20.Alex Smith(49ers) bye week: 6 age: 23
-after looking like a colossal bust two season's ago, the former number 1 overall draft pick showed last season he has a place in an NFL locker room. Showing off the speed and accuracy he used to star at Utah, Smith led his team to a near playoff spot in coach Mike Nolan's first year on the job. Look for Smith to add to his 18 TD's and to be a possible fantasy starter by midseason.
21. Rex Grossman(Bears) bye week: 9 age: 27
-this is make-or-break time for Grossman as last year's Jekyll and Hyde act wore thin by season's end. Many felt Chicago made the Super Bowl last year in spite of him and I am not one to argue. Until he starts to show some sort of consistency, let him pass you by in your draft.
22. Chad Pennington(Jets) bye week: 10 age: 31
-the NFL's Comeback Player Of The Year showed that he still has what it takes to be a starter. What's good for the Jets however is not good for your fantasy team as Chad's noodle arm won't light up the scoreboard. Let him go.
23. Trent Green(Dolphins) bye week: 8 age: 37
-once one of my favorite fantasy QB's, Green's star has dimmed due to the concussion that sidelined him for half the season, along with the poor play that followed upon his return. Age could be a factor here and the he no longer has an All Pro offensive line in front of him as he did in KC. Could move up this list if healthy but too many question marks to trust. Good backup however.
24. Matt Schaub(Falcons) bye week: 10 age: 26
-finally has a starting gig to himself as his trade to Houston got him out of Michael Vick's shadow. Great arm but has not shown much in his limited time in the league. Draft him for his potential but have a better starter to use while you wait him out.
25. Jason Campbell(Redskins) bye week: 4 age: 25
-another young QB with potential but questions marks. Showed enough last season in limited time to relegate veteran Mark Brunell to the bench permanently. Track his early progress but don't draft.
26. Steve McNair(Ravens) bye week: 8 age: 34
-age and injuries have relegated McNair to nothing but ordinary status. Don't count on him to produce like he did during his MVP season.
27. Byron Leftwich(Jaguars) bye week: 4 age: 27
-this one-time potential beast has been relegated to also-ran status. Injuries and poor mechanics have held Byron back with no solution in sight.
Don't Draft
28. David Carr
29. Daunte Culpepper
30. Charlie Frye
31. Damon Huard
32. Jeff Garcia
33. Josh McCown
34. Tarvaris Jackson
35. Chris Simms
36. David Garrard
37. Kyle Boller
38. Joey Harrington
Cofounder of http://www.yourwinningpicks.com in our tenth year of supplying sports handicapping and fantasy sports information.
Fantasy Football Preview - WR Rankings
WR Rankings
Tier 1
1. Chad Johnson(Bengals)
-Ocho Cinco once again had a brilliant season in 2006 as he caught 87 passes for 7 TD's. His rapport with QB Carson Palmer is a thing of beauty and they should continue to produce more of the same in 2007. The emergence of WR TJ Houshmanzadeh last year should also help Johnson in that he will mainly see one-on-one coverage. Draft the biggest sure-thing fantasy WR.
2. Steve Smith(Panthers)
-Carolina's emotional star WR recorded numbers that were a drop-off from his ridiculous 2005 season due to a hamstring injury that caused him to miss two games and affected his running ability for the entire first half of the year. Now fully healthy, Smith is in line to have a very big year once again. Favorite QB Jake Delhomme also is healthy heading into training camp and thus a season of at least 90 catches with 8 scores is a lock. Wouldn't quibble if you picked him over Johnson.
3. Torry Holt(Rams)
-your truly has owned Holt for the last four seasons and he is as big a reason as any that I have enjoyed great success in this game. The best route-runner in the game, Holt combines sprinters speed and soft hands to habitually turn out 90 catch, 8 TD seasons. Off-season surgery on his knee confirms that he isn't as young as he used to be but count on another two years of top player out of Marc Bulger's favorite target. Second round or very beginning of third round is where he will be chosen, hopefully by you.
4. Marvin Harrison(Colts)
-the ageless wonder turned in an incredible 2006 season, hauling in 93 passes with 10 scores at an age(35) where many receivers have started to decline. Of course you can't ignore Harrison's age when deciding whether to draft him or not but until he proves otherwise, then you would be foolish to pass on him. The chemistry he has with QB Peyton Manning is possibly the greatest passing show in NFL history and I believe Harrison will put up around the same numbers he did last season. In other words, he is a player you want to own.
5. Larry Fitzgerald(Cardinals)
-Fitzgerald took a little bobble in his development last season as his 69 catches and 6 TD's were not what fantasy owners expected after his breakout 2005 season. However injuries were the main cause of the diminished production and I look for Fitzgerald to have a big year as he builds his rapport with QB Matt Leinart. The presence of fellow Pro Bowler Anquan Boldin will allow Larry to get single coverage and at his size, he should have no trouble getting open and piling up the catches. While Boldin may have slightly more catches, Fitzgerald is the one who will grab the more TD's which in fantasy is the name of the game when it comes to scoring points. Draft him by the end of round 3 or if your lucky the top of round 4.
6. Terrell Owens(Cowboys)
-no one at the WR position will give fantasy owners more stress when it comes to deciding whether to draft him or not than Dallas' mercurial, moody pass catcher. There is no doubt that when healthy and he has his head on right, Owens can flat out dominate a game. He proved that once again in a comeback season(85 catches, 13 TD's) of sorts after the controversy/injury filled ending to his tenure in Philadelphia. Despite more than occasional drops, Owens is the best source out there for catching TD's and for boorish behavior. So if you plan on drafting him, just be prepared for both.
7. Reggie Wayne(Colts)
-once again taking a giant step forward in his development, Reggie Wayne is almost running neck-and-neck now with counterpart Marvin Harrison in the value department. Despite still being considered the number two wideout in Indy, Wayne's 86 catches and 9 TD's were numbers indicative of a true number 1 receiver. Smack dab in his prime at the age of 28, this could be the year Wayne takes the mantle of top dog in the WR hierarchy. Make sure you get this guy. I certainly will.
8. Anquan Boldin(Cardinals)
-the other half of Arizona's stud WR duo, Boldin once again was the go to guy in the passing game as far as total receptions are concerned(83 to Larry Fitzgerald's 69). Boldin will continue to pile up the catches and is thus extremely valuable in point/reception leagues. His lack of top-notch speed has proven to be a non-hindrance and he is ability to run crisp routes will ensure a solid season. Only negative is the fact he is not as big a TD producer as Arizona will look to the much larger Fitzgerald in the red zone. Solid weekly performer will be a great number 2 receiver.
9. Roy Williams(Lions)
-after injuries impacted his production his first two seasons, Roy Williams put it all together in 2006 as he recorded a career-high 82 receptions with 7 TD's. Williams has incredible size for his position and will win most one-on-one battles so an increase in TD's is more than likely. The drafting of WR Calvin Johnson will take away most of the double teams he faced last season and thus also has a chance to reach the 90-catch plateau. Draft him for a potentially larger breakout season than the year before. Also don't be afraid to reach for him as he could put up number one WR numbers.
10. Donald Driver(Packers)
-Brett Favre's favorite target is in line for another great season as Green Bay tries to venture into the playoffs for possibly the last time with their Hall of Fame QB. Driver has made a nice career for himself despite not having top-notch speed and due to the fact Green Bay lacks another WR of Donald's ability, another 90 catch season is very possible. Although you would like to see him score more than the 7 TD's he recorded last season, those in point/reception leagues will especially value the fact that Favre will look to him first on every pass he goes back to throw. Draft him around the 5th round and you have yourself a top number two wideout. One of my favorite receiving options to draft.
11. Javon Walker(Broncos)
-it was a comeback season of sorts in 2006 for Javon Walker after missing almost the entire 2005 season with an injured knee. The great speed and ability to make the deep catch were all still a part of his repertoire and thus all the fears were alleviated about whether he could be the same player he was before he got hurt. There will be some growing pains for sure as second-year QB Jay Cutler will struggle some in his first year as a starter but already Walker is his favorite target when going back to pass. If you're looking for a 90-catch guy, that Walker is not your man. Denver is a run-oriented offense and so reasonable expectations center on around 75 catches, although he will pile up the yardage and is a better than-average TD source. So overall Walker is a solid number 2 WR you should feel comfortable drafting.
12. Lee Evans(Bills)
-Evans rose to stardom in 2006 with an 82 catch, 8 TD breakout. Probably the biggest home run threat in all of football, Evans had an absolutely incredible 265-yard performance in a win over the Houston Texans. The improvement of QB JP Losman further legitimizes Evans' long-term potential to succeed and I believe he could make an even bigger leap into maybe even top five status this coming season. If you're going to reach for one WR in your draft, be sure to make it this guy.
13. Andre Johnson(Texans)
-Johnson is an interesting option in fantasy circles for a number of reasons. No one doubts his ability as he led the NFL in pass receptions last season(alarm sounding point/reception players). Awesome as that total is, the only problem is that they resulted in only 5 TD's for 1,147 yards. To put it in perspective, Lee Evans of Buffalo piled up 150 more yards with 21 fewer receptions, while scoring 3 more TD's. So my point in all this is the fact that Johnson will indeed pile up receptions as he is the only legitimate top-notch receiving option on the Texan roster and if you're in the point/reception leagues, then feel free to draft him as high as round 3. Otherwise, expect a repeat in his 2006 numbers which may not yield enough points to make him worth the effort in TD heavy leagues.
14. Marques Colston(Saints)
-call me naïve, but I still need to see more before I jump on the Marques Colston bandwagon. Sure his performance last season(70 catches, 8 TD's) was truly one of the biggest out-of-nowhere breakouts in NFL history. Is it possible Colston is the biggest "Rudy" in NFL history or is he another Michael Clayton waiting to happen? I think the answer falls somewhere in between and I believe there are much safer options to choose from than Colston. Let's see him have another 2006 season before he gains our fantasy respect.
15. TJ Houshmandzadeh(Bengals)
-the other half of the Cincinnati aerial assault, Housmandzadeh showed the NFL world he was much more than a possession receiver as he out-caught his more-hyped teammate Chad Johnson(90 catches to 87). He also recorded 9 TD's to Johnson's 7. Although I believe those numbers will reverse themselves this season due to more defensive attention devoted to TJ, I still believe he can have a great season. I expect a slight decrease in his receptions(80 sounds about right) with around 7-9 TD's. Sounds like a nice pickup to me. If you drafted Chad Johnson, reach for this guy so you can feel cool that you have them both! ?
16. Darrell Jackson(49ers)
-it was an up-and-down 2006 season for Darrell Jackson as his 10 TD's were a nice bonus for fantasy owners but his 63 receptions were a disappointment. Much of the latter had to do with an injured toe that made him miss the last three games of the regular season. It seemed the Seahawks were fed up with Jackson's injuries as they allowed him to skip over to division rival San Francisco where he instantly becomes QB Alex Smith's top weapon. If he can manage to stay healthy, the still young Jackson(age 28) could have a bounce back season that includes his customary 80-plus receptions and 8-10 scores. Don't be afraid to draft him but just know he tends to always miss a game or two during the year.
17. Randy Moss(Patriots)
-the biggest NFL off-season transaction without a doubt was the gutsy call by NE to trade for mercurial receiver Randy Moss. Once the top dog at his position while with Minnesota, the star dimmed considerable on Moss during two mostly turbulent, ineffective seasons with the Oakland Raiders. Moss' petulance wore thin in the locker room and pretty soon it was apparent he was only giving half effort towards the end of last season. Now with a golden opportunity to get his big-play name back with perennial contender NE, look for Moss to be on his best behavior as he tries to coexist with the drill sergeant ways of coach Bill Belichick. Although I believe Moss' days of catching 100 passes and 12-15 TD's are long gone, I believe he still can be a big-time player with around 80 catches for 10 scores sounding about right. Of course this situation bears watching since NE traditionally spreads the balls around which may not please the greedy Moss. However I don't believe Randy will blow this opportunity to win the ring he so desperately craves. Draft him as long as you expect him to perform like a number 2 receiver instead of the 1 he used to be. Be prepared with a good backup in case he finds trouble however. Will sink or swim for you so get ready for the roller coaster ride.
18. Plaxico Burress(Giants)
-New York's big-play wideout had another good but not great season in 2006 as he scored his customary better-than-average TD's(10), while securing less than big-time reception totals(63). This makes Burress a frustrating player to own as one week he will have an 8-catch, 2 TD day and than follow it up with a 2 catch whitewash. Still in TD stressed leagues, Burress is a decent number 2 option and thus shouldn't be ignored. However try to do better before you decide to take him for your club.
19. Hines Ward(Steelers)
-a less-than stellar 2006 season began whispers that maybe the 31-year-old Ward might have lost a step. The real reason however for the seemingly lackluster totals(74 catches, 6 TD's) was the absence of QB Ben Roesthlisberger for a good portion of the year. Now fully healthy, Big Ben and Ward should be able to rediscover the chemistry they exhibited during 2004 and 2005. Although I don't foresee a blockbuster season ahead, expect Ward to improve both his reception total and TD's in 2007. Draft him as your number 2 receiver and you won't be disappointed.
20. Reggie Brown
-many fantasy owners were predicting a breakout season from Reggie Brown in 2006 but even though it might have happened, the late addition of Donte Stallworth relegated Brown to second-tier status in Philly's WR hierarchy. Now with Stallworth gone, the number 1 job is Brown's to lose. HE still put up respectable numbers last season(46 catches) and displayed a nose for the end zone(8 TD's). With coach Andy Reid historically favoring a pass-heavy offense, it is possible Brown will truly have the breakout year everyone predicted for him with it coming one year later than originally anticipated. Draft him hoping he has that breakout year and serve as your number two wideout.
21. Laveraneous Coles(Jets)
-Coles more than delighted his owners in 2006 as he hauled in a more-than-expected 91 catches and over 1,000 yards. The chemistry he had with QB Chad Pennington before he signed with the free Redskins as a free agent a few years ago was still evident and there is no reason to believe he can't put up similar numbers. When it comes to the TD department however, Coles takes a backseat to his partner Jerricho Cotchery. Coles was never a TD machine to begin with so this shouldn't negatively impact him much for those who are aware of this. You still get a nice package here and you target him as a number 2 receiver.
22. Vincent Jackson(Chargers)
-I may be guilty of over ranking this second-year player but he is 2007 potential is that good. 27 catches in 2006 don't stand out much but the 6 TD's do. With WR Keenan McCardell no longer with the club and Eric Parker being nothing more than a possession receiver, Jackson has a terrific chance of becoming the number one guy for a potentially explosive offense. QB Phillip Rivers will be that much more comfortable behind center in his second year as a starter and the deep bombs the two seemed to routinely connect on late in '06 stand a good chance of becoming a weekly trend. HE may not become a star overnight, but the TD's will cover what he lacks in the reception department. Draft as your number 3 with the potential to be a solid number 2 if things develop correctly.
23. Santana Moss(Redskins)
-after his Pro-Bowl, highlight reel 2005 season, Moss came back down to earth in '06 as he recorded only 55 catches for 6 TD's. Not what fantasy owners were expecting. Moss historically has been very inconsistent with his performances and he will alternate good games with bad ones. His ridiculous speed however will provide many big-play opportunities and thus chances for long scoring receptions. Will serve as a good number 3 wideout so make room for him and hope his Pro Bowl year's alternate.
24. Jerricho Cotchery(Jets)
-what a find this guy was in 2006 as Cotchery exhibited the talent he displayed at Louisville by grabbing 82 passes for 6 TD's. Blessed with better-than-average speed, Cotchery was the big-play threat in New York's passing attack. Heading into 2007, Cotchery has the chance to be even better and wrest the mantle from Laveranues Coles as the top man, if that hasn't happened already. Draft him if he is still available in the middle rounds for possibly a number 2 player.
25. Chris Chambers(Dolphins)
-without a doubt the biggest WR bust in 2006 as Chambers as he went from 82 catches with 10 TD's in 2005 to 59 catches for 4 Td's in 2006. The 677 yards were also unacceptable for a receiver of his ability. Some of that could be blamed on the fact the Dolphins were inept in almost every sense last season and having Joey Harrington as your QB definitely won't help you either. With veteran Trent Green on board, look for Chambers to become his new Tony Gonzalez. I think Chambers will be re-energized to play with someone of Green caliber and thus will lose the concentration lapses that caused him to drop too many easy throws in '06. Look for a rebound here with potential to get back to number 1 status if all goes smoothly. Draft him as a big bounce-back candidate.
26. Deion Branch(Seahawks)
-without a 1,000 receiving season on his resume, Branch is not someone you target until the middle rounds of your draft. In fact I am going to avoid him altogether because his inconsistency will drive a fantasy owner crazy. The former Super Bowl MVP is talented however and he will have the occasional 8-catch, 125 yard day. The problem with Branch is that his lack of height will prevent him from being a dominant wideout week in and week out. A number three wideout.
27. Terry Glenn(Cowboys)
-Glenn proved in 2006 that he is not done yet as his 70 catch, 6 TD season kept him relevant in fantasy terms. His explosive speed is still his main weapon and if he can avoid the nagging injuries that have always seemed to be a problem for him, Glenn could match last season's numbers. Risky pick but he always seems to have decent numbers at the end of the year.
28. Mark Clayton(Ravens)
-Baltimore's best receiving option for 2007 will most likely be TE Todd Heap, by third-year WR Mark Clayton stands a good chance of having a breakout year to give the Ravens a pair of vertical threats. One of the better sleeper candidates overall this preseason, Clayton has the ability and the determination to succeed. Although Baltimore is a run-first offense, look for QB Steve McNair to utilize this deep-ball pass catcher. Draft him for his potentially explosive potential.
29. Braylon Edwards(Browns)
-still waiting for Edwards to fulfill the grandiose expectations he had after being the third overall draft choice in the 2005 draft. Less than ideal workout habits and off-the-field troubles have conspired to prevent Edwards from being the 80-catch, 8 TD receiver everyone envisioned coming out of Michigan. Has tremendous speed with the ability to make the home run catch. The problem here is that weak-armed QB Charlie Frye is expected to be the starter entering the season while rookie Brady Quinn develops. Thus the long-ball will be difficult for Edwards to procure. Draft him for the possible breakout in the magical third season but don't be surprised if he lets you down again.
30. Bernard Berrian(Bears)
-Chicago's deep threat caught 6 TD's and it almost seemed like he had a deep catch just about ever week. With fellow wideout Mushin Muhammud on the downside of his career, Berrian has the chance to grab the majority of the throws from QB Rex Grossman. Will most likely prove on the 51 catches he managed last season and contribute at the very least 5 TD's. Makes a great number 3 receiver as he could ascend to number 2 status by the end of the upcoming season.
The Rest(Third WR's Only)
31. Joe Horn(Falcons)
-once a fantasy star, injuries and age have relegated Joe Horn to third WR status. His 37 catches and 4 TD's in 2006 were about what he would put up in 6 or 7 games while in his prime years so his best days are clearly behind him. He is a solid veteran however who still can make a fantasy contribution to your team so look to him as a third WR.
32. Donte' Stallworth(Patriots)
-Stallworth was looking like he was going to have a breakout 2006 season with the Eagles until more injuries set him back once again. Blessed with top-notch speed and good hands, Stallworth has everything as star WR needs to succeed. However he never can stay healthy which most likely has to do with his slight frame. Now with the NE Patriots, Stallworth is in a crowded receiving conga line with Randy Moss, Wes Welker and Kelly Washington so his overall numbers don't stand to improve much from the 38 catches and 5 TD's he recorded in 2006. Draft him since he is playing for pass-happy NE but have good backups ready for when he gets injured once again.
33. Joey Galloway(Buc's)
-one one the NFL's fastest players since entering the league out of Ohio State, Joey Galloway never fully realized the potential many foresaw for him. At the age of 35, Galloway is clearly on the downside of his career but the speed is still there which makes him somewhat appealing. The Buccaneer's QB situation is a mess however and Galloway has never been one to pile up the reception totals in his career. Pass on him unless you really are hurting for a receiver.
34. Kevin Curtis(Eagles)
-after spending some productive years with the Rams, Kevin Curtis heads east to the City Of Brotherly Love. A blue-collar receiver all the way through, Curtis uses what he has to make himself useful. Those tools include good speed with incredible hands. Picture a poor man's Ed McCaffrey who wasn't so bad. A nice player who can contribute for you in a number 3 WR capacity.
35. Greg Jennings(Packers)
-with Donald Driver seemingly being option 1 and 1A for QB Brett Favre when he goes back to throw, many failed to see the decent rookie season put up by Greg Jennings. After making a good impression in training camp, Jennings went on to record 45 catches for 3 TD's which places him in the number 3 WR vicinity. Still has room to improve so make sure you make an effort to draft him towards the end of your draft.
36. Devery Henderson(Saints)
-Henderson is another LSU receiver(read; Michael Clayton) who just hasn't made a good transition to the NFL. Has great speed but always seems to vanish for long periods of time each week. Injuries also a problem for him lately. Pass on him and see if he starts to work out his issues.
37. DJ Hackett(Seahawks)
-with WR Darrell Jackson signing with San Francisco in the off-season, DJ Hackett has a chance to further build off his solid 2006 season. 45 catches and 4 TD's in a crowded receiving corps was more than solid in fact for this youngster and more improvement is expected in 2007. Could be a good number 3 WR but more suited for number 4.
38. Ronald Curry(Raiders)
-despite only recording 1 TD, Ronald Curry had a very good 2006 season for the Oakland Raiders. Grabbing 62 passes for such a pathetic team last year makes his accomplishments much more impressive. With Randy Moss now in NE, the spotlight is all to himself and I expect solid number 3 WR numbers out of him with the chance to move up to number 2 status. If the team wasn't so bad, would have ranked him much higher. Draft him late however and bask in selecting a nice sleeper.
39. Issac Bruce(Rams)
-clearly on the downside of his career, Issac Bruce is still a solid veteran who can help your team in a pinch. One of the better route runners in the league, Bruce habitually finds the open seam in opposing defenses. The days of 90 catches and 8 TD's are long over but 70 and 4 sound reasonable. Draft him as your fourth wideout. Always a good performer in this game.
40. Mushin Muhammud(Bears)
-one the wrong side of his prime, Mushin Muhammud's days as a 10 TD force are over and never will return. HE still is a solid route runner with good hands so he has a place on your bench. Draft him as insurance and that's it.
Don't Draft
41. Derrick Mason(Ravens)
42. Santonio Holmes(Steelers)
43. Eddie Kennison(Chiefs)
44. Brandon Jones(Titans)
45. Amani Toomer(Giants)
46. Reggie Williams(Jaguars)
47. Mike Furrey(Lions)
48. Brandon Marshall(Broncos)
49. Drew Bennett(Rams)
50. Jerry Porter(Raiders)
51. Arnaz Battle(49ers)
52. Hank Baskett(Eagles)
53. Michael Jenkins(Falcons)
54. Marty Booker(Dolphins)
55. Rod Smith(Broncos)
56. Wes Welker(Patriots)
Co-founder of http://www.yourwinningpicks.com/ in our tenth year of supplying sports handicapping and fantasy sports information.
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